Prediction Markets Favor Chargers in Monday Night Football Showdown

Ever notice how when betting lines move, they’re usually pulling you toward something the public isn’t seeing? That’s exactly what’s happening with tonight’s Chargers vs. Raiders Monday Night Football game. The Chargers are about −3.5 favorites, with totals hovering near 46.5—but sharp money is quietly loading up on the Raiders and the Over.

In other words, the markets are whispering, “This game might be closer than it looks.”

At the time of this writing, Los Angeles is ≈ 3.5-point favorite in tonight’s matchup, with many sportsbooks listing the spread at Chargers −3.5. The Over/Under (total points) is around 46.5, and the moneyline favors the Chargers at approximately −185 to −196, while the Raiders are lumped in as underdogs at +150-+160.

This pricing implies confidence in a Chargers win, but a tightly contested game.

The big three prediction market platforms—Myriad, Polymarket and Kalshi—were all favoring Los Angeles by roughly 65%.

(Disclaimer: Myriad Markets is a product of DASTAN, Decrypt‘s parent company.)

• The CBS SportsLine projection model confirms the numbers above: Chargers −3.5, total 46.5. It tends to favor Chargers both to win and cover (with the profit for moneyline also tilted toward them).

• Still, some analysts see value in the Raiders +3.5. Their logic: Chargers might have overhyped momentum from Week 1, whereas home field and Las Vegas’s offensive weapons could keep it close. (See SI’s prop & pick story.)

• On the over/under front, there’s a split: some models lean Over 46.5, expecting moderate scoring, while others believe defensive plays, turnovers, or a more conservative game script might push the total Under slightly.

Several betting media outlets have spotted sharp bettors pushing in favor of the Chargers, and the numbers suggest this isn’t just public hype—it’s serious money behind belief in L.A.’s edge.

Here’s what the split looks like, and what it’s telling us:

• Confidence in Chargers from informed bettors: The fact that the majority of both spread bets and dollar volume are leaning on the Chargers suggests sharp money believes LA is undervalued by the public or that recent performance (vs. KC, etc.) justifies the line moving in their favor. 

• Movement in line/spread: The spread creeping from −3 to −3.5 aligns with sharp bettors pushing; sportsbooks adjust lines when heavy money comes in. The Chargers being −3.5 now (vs initial −3) suggests early demand forcing the shift. 

• Over/Under trend is Over bias: 72% of tickets but 92% of dollars on Over at BetMGM shows smart money is confident this game will have decent scoring. That reinforces the idea that props tied to offense (passing yards, receptions, etc.) are a better value.